规模性返贫风险的传导机制及监测阻断——基于多维贫困理论的分析

The Transmission Chain and Monitoring Blockade of the Risk of Large scale Poverty Relapse——Analysis Based on Multidimensional Poverty Theory

中文关键词:  防止规模性返贫  监测体系  共同富裕

英文关键词:prevent large-scale poverty relapse  monitoring system  common prosperity

中文摘要:

      在脱贫攻坚战取得全面胜利后,我国减贫治理进入巩固拓展成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的新阶段。在此背景下,防止规模性返贫风险已成为扎实推进共同富裕的核心议题。基于多维贫困理论,从“触发-扩散-固化”的三阶传导机制入手,系统剖析规模性返贫风险的形成逻辑与治理路径。研究显示,返贫风险的发生机制具有内生脆弱性与外生冲击相互耦合的典型特征。为增强风险识别的精准性与预警的前瞻性,提出构建以“四维一体”为架构的动态监测体系,具体包括:整合农户生计资本与区域发展水平的多元监测维度,构建涵盖经济脆弱性、社会排斥度与环境风险系数的复合指标系统,引入大数据建模实现风险时空模拟,依托数字治理平台打破数据壁垒,形成从风险识别、预警到处置的闭环治理机制。该框架有助于推动返贫治理从被动响应转向主动防控,为实现中国特色反贫困制度的持续完善提供学理依据与实践参考。

英文摘要:

      After achieving a comprehensive victory in the battle against poverty,China’s poverty reduction governance has entered a new stage of consolidating and expanding achievements and effectively connecting them with rural revitalization.In this context, preventing the risk of large-scale poverty relapse has become a core issue in solidly promoting common prosperity.This study is based on the multidimensional poverty theory,starting from the third-order transmission mechanism of “trigger diffusion solidification”,and systematically analyzing the formation logic and governance path of the risk of large-scale poverty relapse. Research shows that the mechanism of the risk of returning to poverty is characterized by the coupling of endogenous vulnerability and exogenous shocks.To enhance the accuracy of risk identification and the foresight of early warning,this article proposes to construct a dynamic monitoring system based on the “four-dimensional integration” framework,which includes integrating multiple monitoring dimensions of farmers’ livelihood capital and regional development level,constructing a composite indicator system covering economic vulnerability,social exclusion,and environmental risk coefficient,introducing big data modeling to achieve risk spatiotemporal simulation,and relying on digital governance platforms to break down data barriers,forming a closed-loop governance mechanism from risk identification,early warning to disposal.This framework helps to promote the transformation of poverty alleviation governance from passive response to active prevention and control,providing theoretical basis and practical reference for the continuous improvement of China’s characteristic anti-poverty system.